Aug 6, 2017
West Virginia: Joe Manchin vs Generic GOP
Many sources have claimed that U.S. Senator Joe Manchin is one of the most vulnerable incumbent senators in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections when he is up for his re-election next year. His home state of West Virginia carried 69% winning for Republican billionaire Donald Trump by 42 points over Democratic nominee, former First Lady, former U.S. Senator and 67th U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. President Trump has been very popular with 60% approval rating of his performance in West Virginia despite lower than 40% approval rating of his performance in the U.S. nation. Last Thursday (3 Aug 2017), I was so shocked to learn that West Virginia Governor Jim Justice officially announced his party switch from Democratic to Republican at Trump’s rally in Huntington, WV. Joe was disappointed by his governor’s decision to switch parties; however, keep in mind that Governor Justice’s party switch has NOTHING to do with WV’s 2018 U.S. Senate election. Only West Virginia voters will decide to vote for incumbent senator Joe Manchin or someone else to represent the Mountain State as the U.S. Senator in the next 6-year term.
Shortly after Governor Justice’s party switch, many political analysts and statewide Republicans believe that Joe Manchin would have difficult times to win the re-election next year. He is the only remaining Democrat on West Virginia’s U.S. Delegation since January 2015 when the 114th U.S. Congress convened. Currently, Joe has only one challenger, an unknown young 30-something environmental activist named Paula Jean Swearengin, in the Democratic primary election. Paula is one of the supporters for U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who won all 55 counties in WV’s Democratic presidential primary election and eventually lost to Hillary Clinton in the nation’s Democratic primary election. Beware, Paula strongly supports the government-run single-payer healthcare system while I’m so glad that Joe is one of only five brave Democratic-caucus senators who oppose to the single-payer healthcare system, according to the voting roll call #173 record. Paula is heavily a very underdog that she will NEVER defeat Joe in the Democratic primary election, period! On the other side, the Republican primary election is somewhat crowded with four candidates including two high profiles — U.S. Representative Evan Jenkins (3rd Congressional District) and West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.
West Virginia’s state legislation used to be heavily Democratic for more than 80 years until 2015. Since then, WV’s state legislation has the Republican-controlled SuperMajority in both Senate and House legislatures. I still don’t understand why it’s been changing. The same thing applies to my own current state of Georgia, which used to be blue for over 100 years until early 2000s. Like West Virginia, Georgia’s state general assembly has the Republican-controlled SuperMajority in both Senate and House legislatures since January 2009. I always wonder why the Deep South has made the biggest changes from Democratic to Republican in the last decade or so.
Anyway, according to a few political sources, the most recent election predictions (July 2017) are showing that West Virginia is lean or likely Democrat, which means that Joe Manchin is projected to win the re-election by a narrow margin. The WV Republicans including Evan and Patrick have high hopes when they believe that any Republican primary winner can defeat Joe. The Republicans claim that Joe is out of touch with West Virginia’s values and rather considered as a career politician staying with the liberal Schumer leadership. Wait a minute, give me a break. That’s not true! Yes, Joe really does that he has touched with his statewide constituents, according to his verified social media network accounts (Twitter and Facebook).
Despite the strong-Republican deep-red Mountain State, I still can see that Joe Manchin is still the heavy favorite to win his re-election next year. I strongly DOUBT that Joe is really one of the most vulnerable incumbent senators, no matter how much his state carried Trump at 69%. Again, Trump winning 69% in this state has NOTHING to do with Manchin’s re-election! Do you know why? Okay, let me explain but let’s take a look at the picture below first.
You see? Many political analysts and Republicans are still BLIND that Joe Manchin III politically reminds me of his predecessor, late Robert C. Byrd, who served historic-longest 51 years in the U.S. Senate from 1959 until June 2010 (his death time). Wow! LOL! Anyway, like Robert, Joe is still Democratic high-profile and most popular celebrity in the Mountain State since he had served as a house delegate, senator, secretary of state and governor prior to moving up to his current federal-level position. Both Robert and Joe are the conservative/centrist Democrats like me. While serving in the U.S. Congress, they have been willing to work the bipartisan issues with anybody including U.S. Presidents. Although they sometimes don’t agree with the Democrats and Republicans on some issues, they are among most respectful senators in the U.S. Congress. Robert had served on the Senate Democratic leadership, including Whip, Majority/Minority leader and President pro tempore. Now, Joe is the next one that he currently serves as Vice Chairman of Policy and Communications Committee under Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Joe could be the next Senate Democratic Whip in the 117th U.S. Congress (2021–2022) if 72-year-old Richard “Dick” Durbin (D-IL) chooses to retire instead of seeking the 5th-term election in 2020. Who knows.
I was so appalled that far-right conservative Patrick Morrisey recklessly dared to write a formal letter with request to Joe Manchin last week. According to the Washington Free Beacon, Patrick called on Joe to resign from Chuck Schumer’s Senate Democratic leadership. Whoa! That’s wrong! Patrick or anyone outside the U.S. Senate has NO right to call or ask any current senator to resign from the leadership of either party. Keep in mind that all senate leadership issues for each of two major-caucus parties are strictly internal business within the U.S. Senate only. Joe had accepted the position in the first place when he either received most votes from his colleagues within his party or was appointed by Chuck. I can’t believe how dare Patrick insults Joe! That’s totally disrespectful and embarrassing! However, good news, I happily commend that Joe has refused to resign from the Senate Democratic leadership. I would urge Joe to stay on the leadership to reflect his reputations greater like his predecessor. I’d love to see Joe moving up to the Democratic Whip or Leader whenever Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer retires one day within the next five years. Yup, Joe Manchin could be the next Robert Byrd! Heh, Heh, Heh! Shame on Patrick Morrisey!
Let’s talk about the Republican primary election first. I predict that Evan Jenkins barely wins the Republican nomination at 48% while Patrick Morrisey finishes the second place at 45%. The rest of unknown candidates receive combined 7% of votes. In the other primary election, Joe Manchin easily wins the Democratic nomination at 90% while Paula and the rest of unknown candidates receive combined 10% of votes.
Joe and Evan would advance to the general election that will be held on 6 Nov 2018. First of all, remember, Robert Byrd never won less than 63% in each of his eight re-elections from 1964 through 2006. Joe most likely will do the same thing in 2018 and possibly beyond! Thanks to the Robert C. Byrd spirit, I predict that Joe Manchin easily wins his re-election and defeats Evan Jenkins or any other generic Republican nominee at least 65% in the even deep-red state! In my prediction, Joe remains the only Democrat on West Virginia’s U.S. Delegation for the 116th U.S. Congress that convenes on 3 Jan 2019.
As you see, this is why I have proudly endorsed Joe Manchin III for his U.S. Senate re-election. Of course, I really wish that he could be my senator because I share most of my political issues and concerns with him.
